Kindle Aims for Every Book Ever In Print

Book NewsSpeaking at D6, a conference about all things digital, Jeff Bezos told reporter Staci D. Kramer that about his vision for the Kindle.

The vision for Kindle is every book ever in print in any language—all available in less than 60 seconds.

It’s a lofty goal that Bezos says may take “years of work.” Years of work? You’ve got 125,000 titles and you think getting the entire compendium of printed books ever, in any language, is simply going to take years of work? I’m hoping this is just posturing or marketing because it will not be possible to do this in years, if ever!

The current way in which Amazon handles pre-ISBN (International Standard Book Number) titles isn’t very good. Long story short, Amazon doesn’t have good visibility into out-of-print books. Their catalog is often wrong because of the chaos that existed in publishing before ISBNs were introduced.

Kudos to Staci D. Kramer for not drinking the Kool Aid and believing that publishers are eager to contribute titles to Kindle. If this were the case you’d have plenty more titles available already. According to Bowker, the number of titles currently available on Kindle is only a third of the total titles published in 2006.

A third of a single year!

Publishers are wary of the digital age and the entrance of Amazon into this arena. Some may embrace the idea, but I believe most have a gut sense that Amazon must be getting more out of the deal somehow. These are established (some stodgy) companies who are not ready to cede control of the future of books to one player.

Mr. Bezos, my advice is to focus on the renewable and ripe market of textbooks.

Kindle Textbooks

Kindle TextbooksKindle Textbooks could be huge. That’s saying a lot for me since I’m not a big fan of the Kindle. It’s not that the device doesn’t look interesting or perform half-way well. I simply believe reading is active rather than passive and there is no motivating agent of change to adopt a new reading platform. So, I’m not nearly as bullish on future Kindle sales, despite the ‘sold out’ buzz and fawning praise from gadgeteers.

Yet, the textbook niche seems ripe for the Kindle. Textbooks are expensive, heavy, frequently updated, largely disposable and reach a demographic eager to adopt new technology.

The US Department of Education (DOE) and Government Accountability Office (GAO) have researched the rising cost of textbooks in the last ten years. Following are a few excerpts from the DOE Koch Report:

Between 1986 and 2004, textbook prices rose 186 percent in the United States, or slightly more than six percent per year (GAO, 2005). Meanwhile, other prices rose only about three percent per year (GAO, 2005).

CALPIRG (2005) found that students at California public universities spent an average of $898 on textbooks in the 2004-2005 academic year. If textbook prices have continued to rise at six percent per year, then this expenditure will rise to $1,009 in the 2006-2007 academic year and constitute 6.1 percent of the estimated annual cost of education for a resident student at a four-year public university (College Board, 2005).

There is a lot of money to be made in textbooks – publishers, college bookstores, used booksellers. In fact, the secondary market in textbooks is perhaps as important to the book vertical as the holiday season. Textbooks provide an ever renewing source of customers who are essentially forced to buy textbooks at high price points.

The Kindle would disrupt this ecosystem which may be why Amazon hasn’t (yet) tapped the textbook potential.

Who would win? Publishers could be persuaded to lower prices for digital distribution based on lower production costs. In addition, if DRM can be attached, the resale capability of textbooks is severely reduced. They likely lock in higher margins, even while reducing the cost of textbooks. The latter means students win and, of course, Amazon wins.

Who loses? Certainly the secondary market for used textbooks. The college bookstores also lose since they’re no longer in the distribution chain, ceding this to Amazon. Folks like Barnes & Noble (who run many college bookstores) and Follett would not be pleased.

Textbooks Too HeavyAside from the economic issues, the weight of textbooks has been a growing concern for both parents and educators. Kindle textbooks would solve the weight issue and would certainly appeal to those concerned with the environment.

However, it could potentially expand the disparity in education via the digital divide. Here’s where Kindle contracts with school systems or grants from non-profits could help distribute the Kindle to all economic classes.

Finally, the market is perfect. They’re young, not reading for pleasure and have no real necessity to hang onto a particular textbook. It’s practical and functional. Yet, a certain percentage will begin to view the Kindle as the preferred reading platform and likely use it for more than textbooks. Amazon could actually create the market I currently don’t see through wide adoption of Kindle textbooks.

The Kindle already provides some features that would benefit students:

… you can add annotations to text, just like you might write in the margins of a book. And because it is digital, you can edit, delete, and export your notes, highlight and clip key passages, and bookmark pages for future use.

There’s already a drum beat of folks advocating for Kindle textbooks, including here, here and even on Amazon. Me? I still don’t have one and don’t really want one either.

I still think wide Kindle adoption is a long-shot but the odds would get better if Amazon launched a highly focused Kindle textbook initiative.

Kindle Sales | 30,000 Kindles Sold | $400MM Revenue

Used Books OpinionCitigroup Analyst Mark Mahaney predicts that Amazon will generate between $400 million and $750 million in Kindle revenue by 2010 based on a to-date Kindle sales estimate of between 10,000 and 30,000. TechCrunch’s Michael Arrington does a nice job taking the Mahaney report and extracting the relevant points. In particular, the issue is the slim amount of public data on the Kindle. The $64,000 question … er … $400 million dollar question is just how many Kindles have been sold.

Here’s how Mahaney arrives at the 10,000 to 30,000 range.

How Is Kindle Doing So Far In The Marketplace?

Our ability to answer this question is very limited. Amazon is the sole retailer of the Kindle and it has disclosed no information about its sales other than to say that it sold out in the first 5 1⁄2 hours. But we have pieced together four different clues to gain a sense of Kindle’s traction.

First, we note that Kindle has consistently been ranked among Amazon’s Bestsellers in its Electronics category. Ahead of the Apple iPod Nano, the Garmin GPS Navigator, and the Canon Powershot Digital Camera.

Second, we note that the Kindle has received a very large number of customer reviews. Per the exhibit below, we note that Kindle has received more customer reviews than any of the other Top 10 Bestselling items in Amazon’s Electronics category – 2,537 reviews as of May 12th – vs. 663 for the Apple iPod Nano 4 GB Silver (3G), the #2 Bestseller. This is in part an unfair comparison. Kindle is a new product sold only on Amazon.com, while there are numerous versions of the iPod, and they are sold by numerous retailers. But still, the volume of reviews does indicate material traction for the Kindle.

Third, we see that the quality/tone of the customer reviews the Kindle is receiving is relatively positive. Below we compare the Star Rating Diffusion – 5 Stars vs. 4 Stars vs. 3 Stars etc… – for each of the Top 10 Bestselling Electronics Items on Amazon. What we see is that the Kindle actually receives fewer high scores than the other Bestsellers – 69% of its reviews are 4 or 5 Stars vs. an average of 80% for the other items. And it receives more low scores than the other Bestsellers – 22% of its reviews are 1 or 2 Stars vs. an average of 13% for the other Items. But for a Version 1 of a product “competing” against a several times iterated leading consumer electronics item like the iPod, a 69% Star 4 or 5 rating is relatively positive.

And fourth, we note that the most reviewed Customer Review of Kindle (“Why and how the Kindle changes everything” by Steve “eBook Lover” Gibson) has been reviewed by at least 27,000 people. Specifically, as of May 13th, 26,931 have read Steve Gibson’s review and actually commented on it by pressing the Yes or No button when asked if the review was helpful. And logically, there would be more people who read the review and didn’t bother to vote, although the voting step is hyper-easy. We believe that this helps provide something of a proxy for how many Kindles have likely been sold. We’d peg the number as somewhere between 10,000 and 30,000 Kindles sold to date.

I’m glad Mahaney speaks to the fact that the Kindle is only sold at Amazon which would boost it’s standing for both bestsellers and customer reviews. However, using the review rating number as a proxy for Kindle sales seems shaky. It is hyper-easy and there’s a lot of vitriol around Amazon, eBooks, DRM that could encourage this type of ‘monkey click’ behavior. I’m not saying Mahaney is wrong because he’s very smart and is most often correct. I just don’t think this is as much an indicator given the buzz and inherent troll behavior on the Internet.

The model Mahaney uses is based on the iPod adoption curve, but using a smaller base and discounted substantially. Clearly, any type of adoption even half as successful as the iPod would be a massive success. The problem (for me) is that I view the iPod and Kindle as very different, and am concerned that the initial rush of sales was far more indicative of a gadget obsessed innovator segment and not representative of how it would translate to the other stages of the innovation adoption curve.

You can read the details of my argument against large Kindle adoption, but in general I simply don’t think reading has nearly as large a market as music; reading is active rather than passive; the portability issue isn’t nearly as troublesome; and the reading market is, in general, less inclined to adopt these new technologies based on an aging demographic.

The one place I can see large adoption would be within the textbook market. Not only would Kindle Textbooks be a boon to Amazon and students, it would groom a whole new generation on the medium in which they read books.

Kindle Review, Barnes and Nobel, (Censored)

Used Books OpinionWelcome to the Used Books Blog Year in Review sponsored by John Barth. That’s right, not meta-fiction but meta-blogging.

The blog began in late June as a way to stay connected to books and to learn more about search engine optimization (SEO). I struggled at first with WordPress but got the hang of things and began to post regularly. An interview with Fine Books & Collectibles helped launch the blog, for which I am very grateful. I also received support and links from many booksellers, as well as colleagues at both Alibris and Abebooks. Again, a hearty thank you for your kind words and assistance.

I took a hiatus from the blog soon after because I just didn’t have enough time to write good reviews. I was busy at work, heading up the launch of Santa.com. I did, however, have plenty of time to read as I commuted on BART. So I have returned to the blog with a stack of books to review and plans to post on a more regular basis.

So what exactly worked and didn’t work for the Used Books Blog in 2007. Thankfully, search did work! Nearly 50% of traffic came from search engines – primarily Google. The terms that drove the most traffic were:

I’m also receiving traffic from a number of odd terms like ‘blow job decal’ and ‘blow job short story’ because of my review of Magical Thinking. Thank you Mr. Burroughs. (A pity sarcasm doesn’t translate as well in writing!)

Referring traffic was good but should be better so add me to your blogroll and we can swap links. I also explored Digg, StumbleUpon, Facebook and numerous other venues to increase the exposure of the blog. I’ve got plenty of ideas, just a shortage of time. Don’t we all these days.

Outside of more referring traffic my goal in 2008 is to produce interesting content and increase comments. So don’t be shy! Leave a comment, whether it’s one sentence, a paragraph or an essay.

Happy New Year and happy reading in 2008!

Amazon Kindle Sales: We Didn’t Start The Fire

OpinionThe Amazon Kindle hopes to spark the flagging eBook industry. Forgive the corny title and reference to Billy Joel and let’s examine whether this time will be any different from the last time … or the time before that. First thing for you to understand is that I don’t have a Kindle, haven’t seen one first hand and don’t have a real big opinion on the nitty-gritty gadgetology that has been covered so well in other blogs.

I’m looking at the larger picture. First, lets talk price tag. At $399 it’s a pricey bit of hardware which will keep a lot of people on the sidelines. But let’s say that’s not an issue. What about the price of books? $9.99 for a bestseller sounds … good, but not great. Sure it’s cheaper than a new hardback, but it’s enough that it will make people think about whether they’ll buy it or not. It might work for the instant gratification crowd and the book group junkies who want to be the first to read the new John Grisham. But the majority of readers will likely think about waiting for it in paperback, getting it from a friend or finding it used on sites like … Amazon.

Is there an iTunes like future for eBooks? I don’t think so. And it has nothing to do with price and everything to do with the medium.

You’ll listen to your favorite music again and again and again and again. If you’re over the age of 30 you might remember wearing out some of your old cassettes. Books? You might read your favorite books more than once, but it’s not even close to the repeatability of music or even movies. I love Player Piano, I’ve read it three times, but I’ve watched Fletch over 20 times.

Part of the reason for this is that music in particular, and movies to some degree, are passive in nature. You can run, work, code, vacuum and do any number of things while listening to music. Movies don’t make you fill in the blanks, you’re not creating the landscape in your head, all that ‘work’ has been done for you and it’s your ‘job’ to sit back and take it all in. Not so with books. Reading is an active event which ‘forces’ you to think, imagine and create. It will also take you a lot longer to finish a book than a movie or listen to a CD.

Still not convinced? The reason why the iPod and iTunes took off was that there was pent up demand. You wanted to listen to that nostalgic music, and it was tough to remember, and then locate that Devo album and listen to Freedom of Choice. Suddenly you could have all those songs in one place! The shuffle? One massive mixed tape!

Simply insert CD, copy to iTunes, sync with iPod and bingo you had your music collection at the tip of your finger … literally. But would you do that for books? Well, you can’t for one thing. Nothing to insert, can’t copy easily and unlikely that you’d even want to go nostalgic and on a whim spend 4-6 hours reading, say … Ender’s Game again.

Finally, the portability of music was a motivating change for consumers. Ditto for movies to a certain extent. But books have been portable for a long time and there isn’t any new technology for books. No Dolby, no HD, no THX. The fundamental technology of books just isn’t changing.

I think Amazon knows all of this to a certain extent, which is why they promote additional functionality, like newspapers and blogs and the ability to view documents and pictures. To me, it just seems like an admission that the core functionality isn’t a category killer … for now. Yes, eBooks will become a viable reality one day, but that day is not today.