Monthly Archives: November 2008

Christmas Kindle Sold Out

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Bah. Humbug. That’s right, it’s Black Friday and Kindle is sold out! Expected ship date is in 11 to 13 weeks.

Kindle Sold Out

Heavy Customer Demand for Kindle?

How exactly does this happen? And no, I don’t believe that it’s “due to heavy customer demand”.

If customer demand had been that heavy Amazon would have been a lot more vocal about it and wouldn’t have called the projections floating around the Internet “extremely high“.

Kindle Production Problems

For the moment lets pretend the heavy customer demand was real. (Who knows, maybe Oprah did move some Kindles.) It shows a glaringly bad supply chain and inventory management system for Kindle. Seriously, you’re going to be out of a ‘hot’ product during the holidays? Miss out on Cyber Monday? It makes little to no sense.

The supply chain and production problems do match some of the things I heard years ago when I first got wind of Amazon building some sort of eReader. The rumor was that it was expensive and laden with material problems. Lets face it, Amazon isn’t known for hardware, is it? So, perhaps Amazon just can’t build Kindles fast enough.

Kindle 2.0?

If we believe that Kindle is sold out, does this point to the idea that Kindle 2.0 will be out early in 2009? Again, it could be a production problem. Could Amazon have stopped producing the current Kindle, but not have gotten Kindle 2.0 up and running in time for the holidays? If so, do people who pre-order the Kindle get a notification that they’re not getting the current version, but a Kindle 2.0? Does this imply the same purchase price, or lower, for Kindle 2.0?

Amazon Dodges Poor Christmas Kindle Sales

The conspiracy theorist in me screams that Amazon has decided to protect Kindle from poor holiday sales. The economy has battered sales across the board and Kindle has a high price tag. What better way to preserve Kindle buzz than to claim victory before the holidays. We don’t know if they’re really sold out, do we?

The interesting thing about this approach is that it would give Amazon the ability to measure holiday demand for Kindle through pre-orders. They can take pre-orders and based on volume then determine future production schedules or new version releases.

In the end this looks bad for Amazon unless you blindly believe the “heavy customer demand” messaging. Do you believe?

The Happy Isles of Oceania by Paul Theroux

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The Happy Isles of Oceania by Paul TherouxThe Happy Isles of Oceania by Paul Theroux is a fascinating synthesis of travel writing and history seen through the eyes of an acerbic narrator. Theroux documents his trip by kayak through the Pacific, from New Zealand and Australia all the way to Hawaii. But it’s the stops in between, in places like the Trobriands, The Solomons, Fiji, Tonga, Samoa, Tahiti and The Cook Islands that really make The Happy Isles of Oceania so special.

Don’t expect a shiny-happy travelogue that makes every place visited seem like a must visit destination where there is no trash, no crime and the sun shines all the time. Nor should you expect the feisty Theroux to think kindly about most of the people he meets on his trip. In fact, it’s usually the opposite.

Instead readers are treated to what I expect are far more accurate views of these destinations, both in terms of the scenery but also the culture and local life. Theroux goes a step further by unearthing the history behind many of these places and it’s these sections that stick with me long after finishing the book.

For instance, Theroux does a splendid job of explaining and analyzing the Jon Frum Movement in Vanuatu.

Was Jon Frum a friendly American pilot who had brought supplies here and shared them around? And perhaps he had said, I am John from America. And then had the war convinced the villagers on Tanna how wealthy America was?

It hardly mattered now. The dogma of the movement seemed to suggest that Jon Frum was a sort of John the Baptist, preceding the savior which was a redeemer in the form of cargo-every nice and useful object imaginable. And the important aspect was that it had come to the island directly, without the help of missionaries or interpreters. No money, no tithing was involved; no Ten Commandments, no Heaven or Hell. No priest, nor any imperialism. It was a Second Coming, but it enabled the villagers to rid themselves of missionaries and live their lives as they had before. It seems to me a wonderfully foxy way of doing exactly as they pleased.

Theroux has done his homework on these anthropological studies. He’s done the required reading. What’s impressive is that he then strolls right into these villages to do his own first hand research. This isn’t always the safest thing to do! First, lets remember that he’s paddling a kayak between most of these destinations. And the natives can be welcoming, indifferent, unsettled or even aggressive.

But that’s the other context to The Happy Isles of Oceania. Theroux is at a crossroads in his life. He’s recently parted ways with his wife of 25 years and is awaiting the results of a cancer test. Theroux runs, or paddles, away. His mindset of impending doom makes him both a bit reckless but also more open than he might have been previously.

Other reviewers have said Theroux found happiness on this trip. I can’t say whether he did or not. He still seems hyper-critical and skeptical of the motives of others but there is a greater sense of peace as he ends his journey.

The Happy Isles of Oceania is also notable because of who Theroux meets on his journey. He never seems to actively seek out these notable personalities, and yet there they are, bumping into each other half way around the world. In that way, there is a pleasing juxtaposition between the foreign nature of the surroundings and the ‘it’s a small world after all’ mantra.

I highly recommend The Happy Isles of Oceania by Paul Theroux for anyone with an interest in travel, history or anthropology. Not only will you enjoy the trip but you’ll learn a thing or two along the way.

Interview with Kindle VP Reveals … Nothing

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Happy KindleEric Engleman at TechFlash recently sat down with Ian Freed, VP for Kindle. The interview, despite Eric’s attempts, yielded absolutely nothing of interest about the Kindle.

Here’s my general (and admittedly snarky) synopsis of the interview.

Q: The Kindle is almost one year old, how do you think it’s done?

A: Great.

Q: What features are and are not working?

A: All our features work fabulously.

Q: What metrics can you share about Kindle?

A: None.

Q: When will a new version of Kindle come out?

A: “In the future” (No, really, that’s a direct quote folks!)

Q: Care to specify?

A: No.

Q: How many exclusive titles does Kindle have?

A: A handful, but let me tell you about this other cool Kindle stuff.

Q: Where are Kindles manufactured?

A: China.

Q: What’s it like doing business in China?

A: Lots of other people do business in China, nothing wrong with that.

Q: Would you consider opening the Kindle platform to third party developers?

A: “I think we might be.” (Direct quote again.)

Q: Do you think Stanza is a Kindle competitor?

A: Kindle is really awesome.

Q: Who are the most surprising people using Kindle?

A: Celebrities and super important government people that I can’t talk about.

The interview ends with personal questions which actually provide some real information about Ian, who seems like a decent enough guy and good father.

But really, why give interviews at all if you’re not really going to say anything?

It’s Hard Out There For a … Bookseller

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Barnes and Noble Booksellers

Barnes & Noble released third quarter earnings this morning, reporting a $18.4 million loss compared to a $4.4 million profit the year before. Same store sales fell a whopping 7.4%!

“A significant drop-off in customer traffic and consumer spending impacted our business in the third quarter,” Chief Executive Steve Riggio said in a statement.

It’s really a perfect storm of sorts for a bookseller like Barnes & Noble. The general weakness in the economy is the largest culprit as consumers decide books are an expendable discretionary item. Sadly, I believe books are the first entertainment medium to take the hit. Consumers can always stay home and watch TV or surf the Internet.

Then there’s the competition from online retailers like Amazon, Alibris, Abebooks and Biblio. In particular, I suspect that used books may be in higher demand as consumers seek to lower the average cost of their purchases.

The real boogeyman might be larger retailers like Target, Walmart and Costco. Convenience and price loom large as these giants leverage their built in foot traffic. This will only grow if the economy continues to suffer and consumers watch their pocketbooks.

Why go to Barnes & Noble to get the newest James Patterson when you can drop it in your basket when you’re at Target or Walmart stocking up on paper towels? Oh, and did I mention it’s cheaper too?

Barnes & Noble has been effective in their strategy of making their stores gathering places – destinations for even the casual reader. But that’s going to be increasingly difficult in this economic environment and they don’t have the website presence to help backfill this weakness.

No matter how you look at it, it’s hard out there for a bookseller.

Choose Your Own Adventure Books

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Choose Your Own Adventure Inside UFO 54-40Do you remember the Choose Your Own Adventure book series? If you grew up in the 80s I’m guessing you might. I know I do.

Here’s what Wikipedia has to say on the subject.

Choose Your Own Adventure was one of the most popular children’s series during the 1980s and 1990s, selling over 250 million copies between 1979 and 1998, and translated into at least 38 languages.

I can understand why they were so popular. Written in the second-person, these books put you, the reader, in the driver’s seat, allowing you to make choices during the narrative that effect the outcome of the book. Talk about empowerment!

Here’s an example from the The Abominable Snowman, the first book in the Choose Your Own Adventure series.

If you decide to cancel your meeting with Runal and search for Carlos, turn to page 7.

If you feel Carlos is OK and go ahead with your plan to meet Runal, turn to page 8.

You make these choices frequently through the book, winding your way to one of multiple endings. The number of endings for each book could be as high as 44, or 30 like in my favorite of the series, Inside UFO 54-40.

There was usually one really good ending. You’d try again and again to get to that ending instead of the others that ended in death, imprisonment or some other misfortune. Inside UFO 54-40 was unusual in that none of the normal paths actually got you to the really good ending. ‘Paradise’ could only be found by breaking the rules of the book and finding the ending you wanted by thumbing through to that elusive, orphaned, page.

While I certainly enjoyed the structure of the Choose Your Own Adventure books, it was the lesson in Inside UFO 54-40, about thinking outside of the box, that stuck with me.

Choose Your Own Adventure books have been praised for capturing reluctant readers. I wasn’t one of those. I was reading Watership Down, Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, Cat’s Cradle, Dune and Caves of Steel. But the series helped continue my passion for books. It seems to have done that for many others, and is also heralded as a great gender neutral series because of the second-person narrative style.

The series was written by a number of authors though most were penned by R.A. Montgomery and Edward Packard. Montgomery is trying to revive the series through Chooseco, his new publishing company. I can definitely see a way for the series to connect to a new generation, but it’ll take better integration with the Internet and a major overhaul of the Choose Your Own Adventure site.

Perhaps a few dedicated fans with technical savvy can reach out and help Chooseco? It’s a worthwhile endeavor in my opinion.

In the mean time, check out the great collection of covers and reviews at gamebooks.org and pick up a few used copies for your kids (or you).

Kindle Porn

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Kindle porn, or Kindle erotica if you like, has been rumored to be a not-so-inconsequential part of sales. But like many things Amazon, they provide little to no information or guidance on the topic. From what I can tell there is no Kindle sales ranking to help us back into the figure.

Here’s what I do know. As of this writing there are 3,844 titles listed under the Kindle Books > Fiction > Erotica category. That means Erotica comprises approximately 2% of the current Kindle catalog. By comparison, Literary Fiction has 4,487 titles. I’m guessing the distribution of titles is quite different outside of Kindle and that Erotica doesn’t have the same high rate of penetration when you look at titles in all formats.

Recently, a thread on FriendFeed developed around the following captured image.

Kindle Porn

The implication here is that there is a substantial overlap in viewing habits between Kindle and … ‘Sexual Wellness’ items. So, is there a greater incidence of purchasing behavior between the Kindle, erotic titles and … accessories? Perhaps. Or maybe Amazon just has their finger on the proverbial scale and Kindle is almost always presented as a similarly viewed item.

There is some logic to the type of items that are being presented above if you believe some conventional wisdom. The Kindle is black and white only with no picture capability. So it’s not going to attract the normal porn crowd but, most likely, will appeal to a predominantly female demographic who aren’t as visual as their male counterparts.

It would also be appealing since it is completely anonymous. Not only are you ordering ‘online’ but there is no delivery of the title to your home, nor would you have to hide a provocative cover should you be reading it out in public or in bed next to a spouse.

If this is an area where Kindle is gaining traction, I suspect that the sales by format would also favor digital distribution. As such, that could have a material impact on the one Kindle statistic Amazon does mention.

Kindle titles already account for more than 10% of unit sales for books that are available in both digital and print formats.

Fact or (Erotic) Fiction? What do you think?