Used Books Blog

The Kindle sales numbers reported by TechCrunch on August 1st have been refuted by Amazon officials says Tim Beuneman, analyst from McAdams Wright Ragen. The Seattle Post-Intelligencer reports the news came from Beuneman via “an e-mailed note based on meetings with management.”

Amazon officials gave McAdams Wright Ragen analysts the impression that high-end estimates on Kindle sales reported by TechCrunch and a Citigroup analyst are not reasonable.

Amazon managers “told us that the Kindle is definitely selling very well, but they also said the analysts and reporters giving out these extremely high estimates ‘did not run them by company,” Bueneman wrote.

Extremely high? Interesting choice of words.

I was suspect of the numbers when they were reported but took them at face value. Now, it seems I should have listened to the nagging voice in my head that said the numbers were too high. If Kindle sales were that good, Amazon would be on the roof crowing about the news to anyone who would listen.

My post on those first numbers was restrained. Let’s face it, TechCrunch had a number from a source while I simply had a gut feeling, back of the envelope calculations and socio-economic theories. I won’t make that same mistake twice.

Kindle sales aren’t anywhere near this figure based on Beuneman’s statement, coupled with the ’small amount’ of New York Times subscriptions sold on the Kindle, and the fact that Kindle has only been available for sale (by my calculations) just shy of 5 months.

Amazon also reiterated that it would have a student Kindle in the near future. I’ve advocated for a textbook Kindle. The focus on the textbook market is smart, but also an admission of sorts that the Kindle is not finding a mainstream market.

Textbook publishers might not be willing to change their pricing structures, and secondary market players both online and offline, will not want to give up the lucrative used textbook market. I’d feel more confident if Amazon had a positive relationship with publishers, but they don’t.

Finally, will the iPhone 3G problems make consumers more hesitant to try Kindle? I’d surmised that Kindle would benefit from positive experiences with the iPod, but they could face similar negative effects from the latest iPhone launch. Not to mention that little thing called the economy.

It’s all conjecture until Amazon decides to be a bit more transparent.

This entry was posted on Saturday, August 23rd, 2008 at 3:33 pm and is filed under Kindle, eBooks, Book News, Book Statistics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.