Amazon Kindle Sales: We Didn’t Start The Fire
The Amazon Kindle hopes to spark the flagging eBook industry. Forgive the corny title and reference to Billy Joel and let’s examine whether this time will be any different from the last time … or the time before that. First thing for you to understand is that I don’t have a Kindle, haven’t seen one first hand and don’t have a real big opinion on the nitty-gritty gadgetology that has been covered so well in other blogs.
I’m looking at the larger picture. First, lets talk price tag. At $399 it’s a pricey bit of hardware which will keep a lot of people on the sidelines. But let’s say that’s not an issue. What about the price of books? $9.99 for a bestseller sounds … good, but not great. Sure it’s cheaper than a new hardback, but it’s enough that it will make people think about whether they’ll buy it or not. It might work for the instant gratification crowd and the book group junkies who want to be the first to read the new John Grisham. But the majority of readers will likely think about waiting for it in paperback, getting it from a friend or finding it used on sites like … Amazon.
Is there an iTunes like future for eBooks? I don’t think so. And it has nothing to do with price and everything to do with the medium.
You’ll listen to your favorite music again and again and again and again. If you’re over the age of 30 you might remember wearing out some of your old cassettes. Books? You might read your favorite books more than once, but it’s not even close to the repeatability of music or even movies. I love Player Piano, I’ve read it three times, but I’ve watched Fletch over 20 times.
Part of the reason for this is that music in particular, and movies to some degree, are passive in nature. You can run, work, code, vacuum and do any number of things while listening to music. Movies don’t make you fill in the blanks, you’re not creating the landscape in your head, all that ‘work’ has been done for you and it’s your ‘job’ to sit back and take it all in. Not so with books. Reading is an active event which ‘forces’ you to think, imagine and create. It will also take you a lot longer to finish a book than a movie or listen to a CD.
Still not convinced? The reason why the iPod and iTunes took off was that there was pent up demand. You wanted to listen to that nostalgic music, and it was tough to remember, and then locate that Devo album and listen to Freedom of Choice. Suddenly you could have all those songs in one place! The shuffle? One massive mixed tape!
Simply insert CD, copy to iTunes, sync with iPod and bingo you had your music collection at the tip of your finger … literally. But would you do that for books? Well, you can’t for one thing. Nothing to insert, can’t copy easily and unlikely that you’d even want to go nostalgic and on a whim spend 4-6 hours reading, say … Ender’s Game again.
Finally, the portability of music was a motivating change for consumers. Ditto for movies to a certain extent. But books have been portable for a long time and there isn’t any new technology for books. No Dolby, no HD, no THX. The fundamental technology of books just isn’t changing.
I think Amazon knows all of this to a certain extent, which is why they promote additional functionality, like newspapers and blogs and the ability to view documents and pictures. To me, it just seems like an admission that the core functionality isn’t a category killer … for now. Yes, eBooks will become a viable reality one day, but that day is not today.
December 22nd, 2007 at 12:59 am
You’re not a reader, obviously.
December 22nd, 2007 at 7:24 am
Humm, I don’t know whether this is spam or if you’re for real. I am a reader, hence a blog dedicated to book reviews, news and opinion.
December 22nd, 2007 at 11:17 am
As far as the Kindle goes, my thumb is firmly horizontal (neither up nor down).
I think that some of the technology Amazon has developed (a better screen, excellent battery life, wireless downloading) are advances. I also think that anything that helps establish e-Books as a viable method of delivering reading material is an advance.
On the other hand, I have two very serious complaints about the Kindle, the Sony reader, and all other devices that are being introduced specifically as e-Book readers.
The first is the issue of Digital Rights Management (DRM). This simply won’t fly. I wouldn’t buy a Kindle, and submit to the process of purchasing books that will only run on a single device, unless I had assurances that there will be some way to migrate the “books” to another device in the future. I haven’t seen anybody comment on this point specifically, but if the DRM ties the books to a specific serial number of the Kindle, a hardware failure in that device would make the user’s entire inventory of books valueless!
Even if the DRM allows transfer to another Kindle, that still ties the value of the books to the DRM manager - Amazon. We have already seen instances in the music industry where music distributors have changed the DRM functions to limit user’s rights AFTER purchase — music files that could previously be used forever now expire after a fixed time limit.
When I buy a physical, printed book, I have the right to use it forever. I have the right to resell it. I have the right to use it in any location, and for any purpose, I choose.
Paying $9.99 for an e-Book isn’t much of a bargain when the hard-cover printed copy is only $25.00. It’s no bargain at all when you consider I can resell the hard-cover for $15.00 when I’m done with it. It’s no bargain at all if the Kindle becomes obsolete after five years, and I can’t transfer my e-Books to a more modern device. It’s ESPECIALLY no bargain at all if, two years from now, Amazon decides to change the licensing terms and “expires” the books I have already purchased!
Now for my second complaint: the Kindle might be the best e-Book reader in the world, but I don’t have any intention of buying a single-purpose device.
I have been reading e-Books on my PDA for several years. I have a 1 Gigabyte SD card installed in the device, and I have about 150 full-length books stored on the card. When I’m not using my PDA as an address book, or a calendar, or to take notes in a meeting, or to calculate wholesale prices from costs, or to show people photographs of my kids, or to listen to lectures (or music), or… well, you get the idea… I use it to read.
My current PDA has a smaller screen than the Kindle. It doesn’t have battery life as long as the Kindle. But IT’S THE ONLY DEVICE I HAVE TO CARRY.
I expect to replace my PDA fairly shortly with a Smart Phone, even further reducing the devices I’m carrying. One of the selection criteria for the replacement device is that it be able to deliver all the functions of the existing PDA, including reading e-Books.
Mobile devices are the point of the wedge in technological convergence. Single-purpose devices may be a good way to experiment with new technologies (such as different display technologies), but they simply will not survive in the market. Converged devices will win the battle for market share.
December 22nd, 2007 at 2:12 pm
Michael,
Thank you for the great detailed reply! You bring up a number of good points. I agree that some of the advancements that Amazon came up with are positive. The better screen, long battery life and wireless download capability are all good features.
However, as you then note there are other issues. DRM is one I hadn’t really addressed but IS important. With a physical book you can do pretty much anything you want with it once you purchase it. In particular you can lend it to friends or sell it back to any number of people though any number of outlets, both online and offline.
So, given the inability to transfer or resell the book, the price is certainly steep. Then factor in any upgrades that might occur or the fact that the platform might become obsolete and you’re really in a bind.
Your point about converged devices is very valid, and actually might pave the way for eBooks long term. If someone were to simply provide the right ’software’ on the right platform, you might gain some traction within the book industry. You’re not buying a device just for eBooks, but a device which, among other things allows you to read eBooks.
Blackberry and Treo, are you listening?
December 31st, 2007 at 3:40 pm
[…] Kindle Sales […]
January 8th, 2008 at 7:37 pm
you bring up a comparison of books to music. But when I read the questions you pose to yourself I find myself saying “um yes I would be interested.” As an avid reader, and researcher, I’d love to have 60 books at my disposal that are searchable. An example from my world - I read a lot of philosophy books… so I want load “With the Adepts” by Franz Hartmann, a few pdf’s of Hermes Trismeginus, some more modern Kabalistic works and I can read and cross reference between them.
Now I don’t have a kindle… one thing i’d want it to do is a simple word search, i’m assuming it can. So let’s say I find the word “Rosicrucian” in one text, and I want to cross reference it in another… take the word, search in the other text. I can do this on a train, on a bus, in my office, at lunch. I don’t need 60 large and rather heavy books to lug around with me.
To me, this is a straight comparison to music. Who wants to lug around 30 cd’s, when they could put them on a shuffle?
If you approach reading as a 1 to 1 ratio: “I read one book at a time” and not from a researching perspective… you probably won’t agree with me. but consider the researchers.
On top of it, the ability to digitally transfer a book right now to the unit, wherever you are… that’s highly impressive. Right now Amazon has about 200 titles in the subject matter i’m interested in… Amazon’s big claim is that they will digitize all their books to work with the kindle. If that’s true, and I have no doubt they could do that in a few years, then that’s a major plus for me.
The price? It’s just $400. That’s my take. Maybe I overspend… i also bought an iphone when it came out. But this is totally in my price range.
One final thought… try and find a Kindle. It’s Jan. now, and Amazon still can’t keep up with demand, they are oversold. It’s the Ps3/Xbox all over again, people are selling Kindle’s on ebay for $700.
I think it’s made an impact. How much, time will tell… but i’m sold on it… so much so, i’d love to have one right now.
January 8th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
I neglected to mention why I would prefer Kindle as a reader to other devices… iphone, laptop’s, pda’s… i dont particularly like reading pdf’s on a computer screen… nor do I enjoy reading text on an iphone. I do it. I don’t enjoy it.
Everyone is raving about the e-ink technology. It sounds fascinating.
What i’d love to see in further iterations would be the ability to have a touch screen… move through pages by “flipping” them on the screen itself… to have a the ability to ‘mark it up’ with a stylus. and highlight & copy/paste in quick motions like one might find on an iphone.
It’s not perfection, but it’s sparked my interest. I think it’s on the right track to.
January 9th, 2008 at 9:51 am
Unfortunately my thumb is down. Not because the intention of Amazon but for the final delivery. ( The should take a look to Apple if they want to build a platform with high user centric design).
The negative part: It is big (467cc); heavy (292g); expensive ($100 more than the Sony Reader); Retailing at $399 and the display is black and white. No ability to read RSS feeds it is capable of storing up to 200 books,but who wants to go around with 200 books. Surely users could take a paperback and a mobile internet-enabled device to get the same or greater experience (certainly lighter) for less? At least online editions of newspapers will be in color and, after all, who reads 200 books at the same time?.
Limited access to books. Amazon will sell access to over 88,000 books; US, French, German, and Irish newspapers; and over 250 blogs.If you want to access to blogs. Emails from the device will cost $0.10 per message and users will be charged for blog access (free online). Not a totally out-of-the-box model then.
Moreover, why people will carry a new book reader additionally to their ipod and mobile phone. We see that in this industry devices are converging into multi task devices and not more devices independently.
However,one aspect interesting is the MVNE model for connection to internet. The Amazon device enables users to download content wirelessly over Sprint’s national EVDO network without the need to sync with a PC. But for Kindle users there will be no need to sign up for Sprint. Amazon promises to take care of it. The wireless connection can be used to download purchased content or browse Wikipedia for free.
Taking care of the device’s connectivity on behalf of users is interesting .The idea that the essential plumbing is handled by the device manufacturer means that consumers simply pay the price on the box. This certainly makes the consumer proposition fsimpler, although the scenario of the operator becoming merely the bitpipe is brought a step closer.
Some challenging numbers anyway: Fewer than 1% of sales by US publishers in 2005 were ebooks, suggesting that the Kindle faces a complicated scenario. Interesting is also that the content price is reasonably. Amazon is pushing content hard with bestsellers retailing for $9.99 or less (compared to average of $25), but Amazon’s ebooks can not be shared like a printed edition.
The copyrights protection of Kindle very low.If you are willing to violate copyright laws, getting free ebooks is almost as easy as getting free music. There are numerous sites that have free, legal, out-of-copyright ebook files available for download. But tens of thousands of newly released books, including best sellers, are readily available on on BitTorrent sites as well, right next to movies and music.The Kindle can read text and Word files in addition to its proprietary format. And PDF and .Lit files are easiy converted to .txt files. That means just about any book downloaded via BitTorrent can be read on the Kindle.
While iPod from Apple sells lots of songs legally on iTunes, the majority of content on most iPods comes from home-ripped CDs or was obtained in violation of copyright laws. I expect the same thing with the Kindle. Web browsing is really not a nice thing to do with the Kindle. Just look into this video.
Nevertheless, today Kindle is the 4th bestselling product at Amazon, competing in the top with iPod, iPhone and top devices.
The product is sold out. You also can see some comments from customers at this page. (It has 3 stars out of 5)
Anyway, we need to give it some time and see how it goes. Amazon has some shoulders to support and push this initiative.
January 9th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
I concur with many points made by Mr. Meyers-Jouan.
A major issue with any digital media technology is the one mentioned regarding perpetual rights (and access) to your media. Purchasing a fixed medium copy of a work (a book, a CD or LP, a DVD or VHS, etc.) gives you a perpetual access copy. These are expected to last a reasonably long time, and are relatively easy to back-up if you’re concerned your media won’t (except for books, but since print has been demonstrated to last over 500 years in some cases, this is less of an issue with books).
Libraries are not terribly enthusiastic about digital media because it’s not archival, a point with which I wholehearetedly agree. For casual media owners who would get rid of their books and music after a fixed period of time anyway, permanent access isn’t as big a deal, but for libraries, business users, and collectors this can be a very big deal.
DRM technology especially (as well as file format issues in general) makes this purchasing factor an unknown quantity with digital media. The option of digital rights holders to modify the technology to alter accessibility after purchase is a big problem. Even if this would constitute a breach of a purchase contract, there would be the matter of someone getting together a class action lawsuit and seeking remedy to this violation. While that was going on, users would still be stuck with whatever situation the DRM administrators foist upon them.
Books seem a better use case for virtual medial (i.e. no fixed media) technology than music or movies, because collections of books are very expensive to transport and store. However, the archival issue becomes a very big issue here since many organizations and people that run into this problem in a big way care about permanent access.
Easy portability of the device for a casual reader doesn’t warrant the price tag of the Kindle. Most casual readers aren’t going to buy enough books to amortize the hardware price over enough titles during the hardware’s expected lifetime (which I put at 3 years max for any “new media” technology) — they’d save money just buying books and then donating them to their local library.
I am less in agreement with the issue that the Kindle being single-use is a huge issue. The reason is, when I want to read a book I want a larger surface area for reading. I don’t want to read a book on a PDA. Even once PDAs use similar screen technology to the Kindle the PDA screen is not suitable because it’s too too small.
I agree that I’d prefer to have books in a digital format that could also be loaded onto a PDA if so desired, but that would be an infrequent case for me. For me, a PDA is for glancing at. It’s ok for things like an address book, specialty calculators, occasional note taking and e-mail, and even a local map — but I wouldn’t want to stare at one for the time it takes to read a novel. Laptops are annoying to take to bed with you, which is something I like to do with books and magazines, and their battery life is necessarily shorter due to being a general purpose computing platform. These things make the *idea* behind the Kindle a good one. I think single-use book reading devices do have a future, but the Kindle is too expensive for what you get, and proprietary DRM is a huge turn-off as well.
January 17th, 2008 at 9:59 am
Brian,
Thanks for leaving your comments regarding the Kindle. I hadn’t exactly thought of it from a researching perspective. But you’re right, it would be quite helpful for researchers - when they get enough source material online.
It’s similar to the other application I think fits the Kindle - textbooks. From middle-school to high school to college, having textbooks on a reading device would be extremely useful.
Kindle Textbooks. I think it’s a perfect sweet spot for this technology, but publishers make SO much on textbooks right now I think they’re wary to embrace a new distribution model.
January 21st, 2008 at 3:34 pm
I seem to be amongst the rare group of people who actually have a Kindle, so I thought I’d throw in my $.02.
I’ve been reading books, a lot of books, on PDAs for years. (And paper, of course; I have a personal paper book library with upwards of ten thousand titles.) The small screen of a PDA is irritating but the portability (I have it wherever I am) is a godsend. But even if you can deal with the small screen the battery life of today’s PDAs leaves a lot to be desired. My Palm T|X will run 6 hours or so, maybe 8 if I turn the display all the way down. That’s maybe, just barely, on the edge of making a coast-to-coast airplane trip. It’s certainly not enough for a vacation without the plug in tow.
The Kindle has several huge wins compared to other electronic display systems I’ve used: The e-ink display really does work well in bright light. It’s sharp in a way that LCDs never are; the text looks good. The battery lasts at least a couple of days, if you leave the wireless radio on, or a solid week of heavy reading if you turn the radio off. That alone makes it a suitable device for books on the go where the PDA was marginal.
I have some nits about the ergonomics, which could use some work, but they’re actually better thought-out than it would at first appear. They tried pretty hard to make it feel like a book. Too hard, I think, but it does disappear as you use it. I would prefer buttons that didn’t make noise (the light “clicking” drives my wife nuts when I read in bed, but then again so does flipping pages
and that are inset from the edges so I could handle the device without accidentally turning the page. These are not make-or-break details though.
I worried about the black flash when flipping pages; I thought it would drive me nuts. It doesn’t: after a few minutes of reading your mind blanks it out just like it blanks out page flips. I only notice now when something keeps the page from turning immediately, throwing off my rhythm. Thankfully that is the exception rather than the rule.
Which brings up another nit: There is a delay when flipping pages. Typically it’s about a half second (which is MUCH better than Sony manages on their device) and you get used to it pretty fast but sometimes (rarely) it can exceed a second. When it is slow I /really/ notice, and if I have to flip forward or backward several pages the performance is just too slow.
DRM, DRM, DRM. People harp on the DRM and it’s true that it gives the publisher a lot more control than they had with paper. But it’s not true that you must have DRMed documents if you use this device. There are tens of thousands of e-books out there without any DRM, and the Kindle is unique of these dedicated-function devices in supporting several very common formats out of the box.
Regarding support for DRMed books, it’s possible to get Mobipocket protected books on the Kindle, although it’s not supported and it’s a little fiddly. Most of my protected e-books are eReader format, as yet completely unsupported. Maybe those will be a loss, but I suspect that software upgrades going forward will add more and more document formats … and even if not, it’s possible to strip off the DRM just like with DVDs (even if not strictly legal). It’s not the end of the world.
In any case I am willing to deal with the DRM for the convenience of the device, just as I was willing to deal with it on my PDAs, and in the case of the Kindle there is real value in being able to buy a book right from the device and be reading it less than two minutes later. Maybe that’s not worth much to you, but it’s worth a lot to me. I especially like the fact that I do not have to buy whatever crappy book they happen to have in stock in some woebegone airport bookstore because I finished every book I brought with me on my trip.
I also like the fact that it’s small — not so much the unit, but the books. I mentioned that I have many thousands of paper books. They take up a ton of space. I will never get rid of all of those books, some of them are uniquely interesting and valuable in paper, but I will not lament many of them disappearing in favor of very compact electrons. As it is today I have about eighty e-books and a couple of weeks worth of newspapers on the device. With a 4G flash card it’s capable of holding about four thousand more books. That’s incredible, and I can see real value there.
I’d like it to be faster. I’d like it to be (a lot) cheaper. I’d really like color and more fonts. I’d like improved ergonomics. But as-is it’s a pretty big hit if you ask me, and perhaps that’s why Amazon is selling them faster than they can make them.
The long-term staying power of the device is going to come from document availability, though, and that is one place where I think it’s not wise to bet against Amazon. The more content they have the more valuable the device gets.
What’s more, if they can get my daughter’s textbooks on one of these I will buy her one IMMEDIATELY. For me it’s pretty much the convenience of not lugging around a bunch of paperbacks; for her it’s tens of pounds of books.
I hope this was informative. If anyone has questions or comments they’re welcome to drop me a line.
jim frost
jimf@frostbytes.com
February 5th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
Although I can certainly see the issues in using the Kindle for leisure reading, newspapers, and the like, I would also like to lend my support to the idea that textbooks are really the killer app for the device. However, that application extends beyond just K-12 or standard undergraduate textbooks. As both a grad student, and a practicing engineer, I would kill to have the 50 plus books in my reference library on a single, easily-portable device. This would especially be the case if everything were indexed and searchable from a unified interface. Unfortunately, there’s an absolute dearth of technical publications (at least in my field), in Amazon’s Kindle library, or in any of the other eBook sites I have checked. If I were Amazon, I’d focus on building their technical library, probably a few fields at a time, and market the thing to doctors, lawyers, engineers, and anyone else liable to have bookshelves sagging with reference materials.
May 15th, 2008 at 9:45 am
[…] can read the details of my argument against large Kindle adoption, but in general I simply don’t think reading has nearly as large a market as music; reading […]
May 17th, 2008 at 11:07 am
[…] can read the details of my argument against large Kindle adoption, but in general I simply don’t think reading has nearly as large a market as music; reading is […]
May 30th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
[…] or perform half-way well. I simply believe reading is active rather than passive and there is no motivating agent of change to adopt a new reading platform. So, I’m not nearly as bullish on future Kindle sales, despite the ’sold out’ […]
June 6th, 2008 at 10:49 am
I have a Kindle, I like it a lot. I have no problem with a single purpose device. Lots of books in it…all good… I don’t need it to be a damn phone too.
HATE the DRM. This is really stupid and will be the primary reason that ebooks are not adopted. When I am done reading, through Amazon if I must, I should be able to give away, or resell my books through amazon.
Scott B. worked hard to make this as book like as possible. Why did he leave this off? Because perhaps, the print industry would not buy in with out it. Once he has some leverage, perhaps DRM can be changed. We can only hope.
June 14th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
[…] given the prevalence of online media and handheld devices. I’ve blogged previously that eBooks and the Kindle have an uphill battle because of the passive nature of books and the lack of a motivating agent of change for the medium. […]
June 19th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
When are you people actually going to USE one BEFORE writing about it?
How can you give a valid opinion on something you’ve never experienced?
Go to Barnes and Noble and play with one of their display models - THEN write your blog…just like any decent writer do your research first!
June 19th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Thanks for the comment Jen.
However, as I mentioned there are plenty of other places where you can read about the technical gadgetry and usage of the Kindle. My arguments are not so much about that, but instead the bigger picture of where the Kindle would fit into the marketplace.
I don’t need to drive a Hummer to write about the fact that I don’t think it’s a viable part of the automotive landscape and will likely meet an unhappy end.
I do quite a bit of research, but the research doesn’t always have to be primary research but can instead be secondary research. This is a relatively standard method for a wide spectrum of writers.
But enough about me, what’s your opinion on the Kindle?
August 6th, 2008 at 10:11 am
Wow not only are the readers obviously readers, but also writers! Them some big comments
I’ve been hands on with the Kindle and it is no game changer. The big feature is the EVDO modem. I applaud the people at Amazon for doing something to make books have broader appeal. I understand that Kindle has potential to make books more accessible.
Would I buy one? Hell no! If I am going to put 200 of my books on a device I can bother to plug it into my computer, I don’t need wireless. So why cause the device so expensive ($399!) just to scratch an itch few people have. If I really need to search a book I suppose I could do it at home on a computer. Really though, I’m rarely in a hurry (strange for an American) to find something in a non-technical book. Oh and Google, for me at least, has replaced much of the usefulness of the technical book. If that fails well I guess I will use the index in the back. I’ll be waiting for a cooler device to show up. Maybe an iPhone with digital ink technology
I liken this business venture to Sega TV, which was from a technological standpoint amazing. It failed in the end though because of price and also there just wasn’t demand. People didn’t mind buying or renting a video game and plugging it straight into their Sega console.